It’s Election Day today: Who will win the cyclist vote?
Garcetti is the the big winner. Undecided is in the hunt. This chart really surprised me: I guessed that cyclists leaned Garcetti, but I didn’t expect it to be so dramatic. I was also shocked by the number of undecideds.
Let’s pull out all the non-voting folks and “neither” voters (see my quotes in the LA Weekly about that voting option) and clear up the picture:
Essentially nothing changes! Making this chart was a fun math exercise for me, but turns out to be not useful.
Another question I had: is a cyclist’s perception of bike friendliness connected to their vote.
It appears that whether a cyclist felt LA is bike friendly or not is not strongly connected to their vote. I dug into a bunch of other ways cyclist opinions might be connected to their choice for Mayor. I haven’t found much right now, although it appears that Garcetti has an advantage, above and beyond his already considerable advantage with cyclists, with people who value CicLAvia especially highly. But it’s not huge. I’ll keep digging.
One last chart! Greuel supporters are partly counting on women to come out big for Greuel. Will women support Greuel decisively over Garcetti? I don’t know, but I can tell you that’s not true among women cyclists… at least those that took the survey. However, women cyclists do swing more toward Greuel than men:
It’s still not enough to win the cycling vote though. By the way, we had two respondents who gave “transgendered or other” as their gender, 100% for Garcetti.
There are huge limitations to online surveys. The first is that you capture mostly frequent and sophisticated internet users. Another is that our survey was in English only, but simple observation suggests that there are a lot of Spanish-only speakers who are cyclists. We’re not capturing their opinions here at all. As well, given the way we promoted this survey, primarily through social media, we’re mostly getting responses from people who are tied into my social network, or one near to it. That misses a lot of cyclists.
Huge limitations means huge opportunity for improvement. I’ll be writing up the basic results of the survey – is LA bike friendly in the eyes of LA cyclists, and how has that changed since August 2011 – in my next installment.